Football betting means wagering on the result or events of a match, and most bets fall into a few markets: the match result (home win, draw or away win), the total number of goals, both teams to score, and handicap lines. Each price carries a margin for the bookmaker. In the three-way match result market the margin is usually a few percent, and you can calculate it yourself in one line.
This guide, written with football meaning association football (soccer), explains how the main markets work, how to read the odds formats, how to find the bookmaker’s margin, and how a price compares with a fair one. The calculations are our own, and the worked examples use illustrative prices, not live odds.
What are the main football betting markets?
The main markets are the match result, total goals, both teams to score and handicaps. Each one is a way to bet on the same 90 minutes of football. According to Law 7 of the Laws of the Game, a match lasts two equal halves of 45 minutes, and the referee adds time for stoppages. Most match markets are settled on that period, which includes added time but not extra time. Always read the settlement rules of the market you are using.
| Market | What you bet on | Possible outcomes |
|---|---|---|
| Match result (1X2) | Home win, draw or away win after 90 minutes | 3 |
| Double chance | Two of the three results at once: home or draw, home or away, draw or away | 3 |
| Draw no bet | A team to win, with the stake returned on a draw | 2 |
| Over/under goals | Whether total goals are above or below a line such as 2.5 | 2 |
| Both teams to score | Whether each side scores at least one goal | 2 |
| Asian handicap | A team to win once a goal head start or deficit is applied | 2 |
| Outright (futures) | A team to win a league or cup | Many |
The three-way match result is the most common market. The two-way markets, such as over/under and Asian handicap, remove the draw as a separate outcome and tend to split probability close to 50% each side.
How do you read football odds?
Odds are shown in one of three formats, and all of them describe the same price. Fractional odds are used in the UK and Ireland, decimal odds in most of Europe and Australia, and American odds in the US.
| Format | Example | Meaning of $10 or £10 staked | Decimal equivalent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fractional | 6/4 | Profit of 15, return of 25 | 2.50 |
| Decimal | 2.50 | Return of 25, profit of 15 | 2.50 |
| American | +150 | Profit of 15, return of 25 | 2.50 |
| American | -200 | Profit of 5, return of 15 | 1.50 |
The implied probability is the chance a price needs to break even. It is 1 divided by the decimal odds. At 2.50, it is 1 / 2.50 = 40%. If you think the true chance is higher than 40%, the bet has value at that price. If you think it is lower, it does not.
How do you find the bookmaker’s margin?
Add up the implied probabilities of every outcome in the market. If the total is above 100%, the excess is the margin, often called the overround or vig. It is the bookmaker’s built-in profit.
Take an illustrative three-way price of 2.10 for the home win, 3.40 for the draw and 3.60 for the away win:
- Home: 1 / 2.10 = 47.62%
- Draw: 1 / 3.40 = 29.41%
- Away: 1 / 3.60 = 27.78%
- Total: 104.81%
The margin is 4.81%. To estimate the fair probabilities, divide each implied probability by 104.81%. That gives about 45.4% for the home win, 28.1% for the draw and 26.5% for the away win. These “margin-free” figures are the market’s own estimate of the chances, after removing the bookmaker’s cut.
A two-way market works the same way. Over 2.5 goals and under 2.5 goals both priced at 1.90 imply 52.63% each, so the total is 105.26% and the margin is 5.26%. Our guide to probability and odds in plain language explains the idea in more depth.
How does a price compare with a fair one?
A fair price is the one that would have no margin. If a team truly has a 45% chance of winning, the fair decimal odds are 1 / 0.45 = 2.22. A bookmaker’s price of 2.10 is lower, so it pays less than fair, and that gap is the cost.
We can build a simple model to see this. Suppose the home side is expected to score 1.5 goals and the away side 1.2, and goals are independent and follow a Poisson distribution, a standard simple model for goal counts. Adding up every scoreline from 0-0 upward gives these chances:
| Result | Model chance | Fair decimal odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 44.2% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 25.5% | 3.92 |
| Away win | 30.4% | 3.29 |
With these assumptions the total expected goals is 2.7. The model puts the chance of three or more goals, which is over 2.5, at 50.6%, so the fair odds for over 2.5 are about 1.98. Real match prices come from far richer models than this one, but the principle is the same: a bet is good value only if your estimate of the chance beats the implied probability in the price.
How are double chance and draw no bet priced?
Both are built from the same three-way chances, so you can estimate a fair price for them yourself. Using the margin-free figures above (45.4% home, 28.1% draw, 26.5% away):
- Double chance, home or draw: 45.4% + 28.1% = 73.5%, so the fair odds are 1 / 0.735 = 1.36.
- Draw no bet on the home side: the draw is removed, so the home win has 45.4 / (45.4 + 26.5) = 63.2% of what is left, and the fair odds are 1 / 0.632 = 1.58.
A bookmaker will offer a slightly lower price than these fair figures, because the margin applies again. The safer-looking bet is not free. A double chance at 1.30 implies 76.9%, which is above the 73.5% fair chance, so it costs about 3.4 percentage points of probability. The shorter the price, the less it pays when you win and the more often you win, but the margin is paid either way.
What is an Asian handicap?
An Asian handicap gives one team a head start of goals so that the match becomes a two-way bet. A line of -0.5 means the team must win by at least one goal. A line of +0.5 means the team wins the bet if it wins or draws. Half-goal lines cannot tie, which removes the push.
Quarter lines, such as -0.25, split your stake across the two nearest half lines. A -0.25 bet is half on 0 (a draw returns that half) and half on -0.5. Suppose you stake $100 at 1.95:
- Team wins: both halves win, and you profit $95.
- Draw: the half on 0 is refunded and the half on -0.5 loses, so you lose $50.
- Team loses: both halves lose, and you lose $100.
Quarter lines are a way to price the chance of a draw in between two outcomes. They do not remove the bookmaker’s margin.
What are common football betting mistakes?
The common mistakes are about price, not about picking winners. The usual ones:
- Ignoring the margin. A 5% margin on every bet is a steady cost.
- Betting on the team you support. Loyalty can inflate your estimate of its chances.
- Stacking selections into accumulators. Each leg adds cost, as our guide to parlays and accumulators shows.
- Misreading settlement rules. Extra time and penalties may not count, depending on the market.
- Chasing losses after a late goal. Each match is a new, independent price.
What does football betting cost?
The average cost of a bet is the margin on the market times your stake. At a 5% margin, a $20 bet costs about $1 on average. A season of 100 such bets, or $2,000 staked, costs about $100, in the sense of the long-run average.
The average hides large swings. A short run of wins does not mean a bet has value, and a short run of losses does not mean it was poor. Set a monthly limit before you bet and stop when you reach it. Our guide to setting a gambling budget and time limit shows how, and the Safer play toolkit lists tools and support. If betting is causing harm, visit our get help page.
Sports betting is legal in some places and not in others. See is gambling legal where you live and US gambling law first.
Where should you go next?
If you are curious how a bookmaker’s price differs from a shared-pool payout, read how horse racing betting works. For the cost of combining bets, read parlays and accumulators.