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Gambler’s fallacy

The mistaken belief that a random result is due to change because of what came before, such as black being due after several reds.

The gambler’s fallacy is the belief that past outcomes of a random event change the chance of the next one. It does not, when the events are independent. A roulette wheel has no memory, so a long run of one color does not make the other color more likely. The fallacy often leads players to raise bets while chasing a result they feel is overdue. Real streaks happen by chance in any random sequence and do not signal a coming reversal.

Example

After five reds in a row on a European wheel, the chance of red on the next spin is still 18 in 37, about 48.65%.

Cite this definition: https://chancepedia.com/glossary/gamblers-fallacy/

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